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时间:2019-05-22 15:48:46  来源:  作者:
      一家之言

  如果投资者现在还抱着“买房就涨”的固有思维,难免会遭遇“套牢”风险。

  据新华社5月18日消息,为进一步落实房地产市场调控城市主体责任,住房和城乡建设部又对近三个月新建商品住宅、二手住宅价格指数累计涨幅较大的佛山、苏州、大连、南宁四个城市进行了预警提示。

  住建部之所以发布预警提示,与近期房价走势密切相关。国家统计局5月16日发布的2019年4月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据显示,4月有67个城市新建商品住宅价格环比上涨,3月为65个城市。其中,涨幅居首的城市是秦皇岛,涨幅达1.8%;北上广深涨幅分别为0.5%、0.3%、1.1%、0.4%。除秦皇岛之外,广州、昆明、西安、济南、武汉、杭州、洛阳、重庆、北海的涨幅也超过1%。

  与此相伴的是,各种房市“小阳春”论调再度兴起,关于“房价要大面积反弹”、“目前是否已是投资良机”的预期再度升温,显示市场情绪已出现微妙变化。

  近年来,国家已确立未来中国房地产市场的基本走向,明确了房子的第一功能是为满足广大民众的居住需求,通过增加土地供应量、推动“租售同权”以及适度加强交易环节调控等手段,来规范开发、销售、中介等环节,调控房地产价格合理运行。4月19日,中央政治局召开会议,再次提及“房住不炒”、“因城施策”等内容,针对近期房地产市场形势,重申宏观调控整体方向不变,避免个别地区再次出现投机炒作现象。

  经过近两年的调控,全国房地产市场终于进入到平稳运行态势,成果来之不易。因此,在当下政策环境与市场环境的双重作用下,全国大中城市房价出现大幅上涨的可能性较低。近期部分区域和城市开发商“拿地”热度增加,主要是因为开发商基于今明两年发展需要所做出的资源储备之举。各地日前也强化了对房地产市场的实时监控,如苏州近期针对土地溢价率大幅走高现象,发布《关于进一步促进全市房地产市场持续健康发展的补充意见》,对工业园区全域、高新区部分重点区域的新建商品住房实施“限售”,规定新房须取得房产证3年后方可转让;园区全域二手房须取得房产证5年后方可转让。

  可以预见的是,随着住建部对热点城市的预警提示,已经在给市场释放明确信号:希望大家对房地产市场保持理性,政府调控不会全面放松。各地会根据房地产形势而适时调整相关政策,对确实存在“过热”苗头的城市,可能会通过调控加码来为房市“降虚火”。中央近年来一直强调“一城一策”,就是赋予地方更多对房地产调控的自主权,可以根据房价走势及市场心理的变化,随时通过交易环节的入口(如购房者资格)和出口(利率杠杆、售卖期限等)实施管控,确保所在区域房地产市场的良性发展。

  因此,面对房市的“小阳春”论调,购房者仍需保持理性,冷眼看待。如果是出于改善型居住的刚需角度,可从生活实际所需出发介入房市,选择合适的房子。但对于投资型乃至投机型需求而言,中国房地产市场经历前些年的持续暴涨后,价格仍处高位,潜在升值的空间已非常有限。

  更重要的是,随着中国城市化战略的推进,大量年轻人以向经济发达的东部一二线城市流动为主,未来房地产市场的区域分化趋势将日趋明显,类似鹤岗房地产市场出现的“白菜价”还可能会出现。如果投资者现在还抱着“买房就涨”的固有思维,而忽视房地产市场结构性调整、区域差异等深层次因素的影响,难免会遭遇“套牢”风险。来源: 新京报 

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